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Friday, 14 August 2026

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Quaest poll: Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in a technical tie for the second round

The Quaest poll shows Lula at 38% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 31% in first-round voting intentions, while in the second round they are tied at 43% and 40%, respectively.

Quaest poll: Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in a technical tie for the second round
Photo: Lula Oficial · Wikimedia Commons · CC BY-SA 4.0

According to a poll released on Friday (14) by Quaest, Lula from the Workers' Party (PT) leads the first-round voting intentions with 38%, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro from the PL with 31%.

In addition to Lula and Flávio, Renan Santos from the Mission party and Ronaldo Caiado from the PSD each have 4%, while Augusto Cury from Avante and Romeu Zema from Novo register 2%.

Regarding a potential second round, Quaest indicates a technical tie between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. Lula reaches 43% of voting intentions, while Flávio totals 40%. The poll has a margin of error of 2 percentage points, allowing for this interpretation of a tie.

Quaest poll: Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in a technical tie for the second round
Photo: PT - Partido dos Trabalhadores · Openverse · BY

In terms of rejection rates, Flávio Bolsonaro also stands out with a 54% rejection rate, while Lula has a rate of 52%. Ronaldo Caiado registers 35% and Romeu Zema 34%.

The data was collected in recent days, in the context preceding the start of the electoral campaign for the upcoming presidential elections scheduled for October. Voting intentions were assessed through prompted interviews, where voters were presented with the names of the candidates.

The information was released by various sources, including g1 and Folha de S.Paulo, reflecting a landscape that could influence the political strategies of the campaigns.